Kindle Fire will go to everyone else
A lot of consumers will see their shopping choice between iPad and Fire - and I think we'll see one winner: The Kindle Fire.
For people that don't have money to burn, it will definitely be one over the other. Also, the Fire does some things so fabulously that getting a pricey second iPad is much less appealing.
The iPad is the size of a dinner plate (the Fire is 2/3 the weight and smaller); it's physically fragile (the Fire can be dropped and doesn't scratch); Apple's app market is censored; it's too expensive; it will never replace a real laptop for writers and content creators; and you're stuck with fighting for bandwidth in high traffic areas.
The iPad is trying to be *everything* - and the Kindle Fire isn't an iPad. The Fire shows that a slick content consumption tablet doesn't have to be any of the things I just listed.
iPad will stay with retail businesses, content consumers with money to burn, Apple product and OS natives, and technologists that inherently can do more with the iPad than the average consumer.
The Kindle Fire will go to everyone else.
Families will pick the Fire because it's inexpensive, scratch-proof, drop-proof and kids really love it.
And Amazon is making it very desirable for its Prime customers. What if Apple had a version of Prime, and for a small flat fee ($79) you could have thousands of movies and TV shows in iTunes streamed for free? Or a paid app a day (and not the cheap ones, either)? They don't.
At $199, the Kindle Fire is the clear winner. You can get two for the price of one iPad and it doesn't ever feel like you're settling for less. The Fire is $300 cheaper than the entry-level iPad and $630 less expensive than the 64GB model with 3G.
iPad, if you really want a tablet
The Kindle Fire is a light computing device for entertainment and shopping.
If you have any intention of using a tablet for getting work done, regular web browsing, editing or creating documents, regularly writing emails, managing projects, educating yourself, or connecting to corporate meetings, then you should bypass the Kindle Fire and go with the iPad.
The iPad is a more complete product, much more of a laptop replacement, and has a far greater catalog of third party apps. It's those apps that allow the iPad to do so much more than the Kindle Fire, including a much larger selection of business apps, educational software, and games.
The $199 price tag of the Kindle Fire looks great, but if you're primarily going for an e-reader than I'd recommend the e-ink Kindle Touch for $99 because it's much lighter, easier on your eyes, has much longer battery life, and just offers a more pleasant reading experience.
If you really want a tablet, then get one that can actually do a few things and keep you away from a computer. That's the iPad.