As China becomes a mature smartphone market, the industry is going to decelerate to single digit growth and that could mean "grave consequences for Apple as well as the high-end Android space," according to IDC.
Specifically, IDC is projecting 2016 smartphone shipments of 1.5 billion, up 5.7 percent from 2015. In 2015, shipments of smartphones were up 10.4 percent in what IDC noted is likely the last year of double-digit growth.
Average selling prices for smartphones are expected to fall from $295 in 2015 to $237 in 2020.
Mature markets are the U.S., China and Western Europe and all three had single digit growth in 2015. India, Indonesia, and the Middle East and Africa showed better growth. The problem? IDC noted that the growing markets aren't into premium smartphones.
The game for Apple and players like Samsung will be to convince existing customers in mature markets to trade up more quickly, said IDC.
Here's a look at IDC's smartphone forecasts by platform followed by the geographic breakdown.