IDC predicts Windows Phone 7 will be 2nd behind Android by 2015

It seems that the smartphone forecast models may look favorably on the Nokia Microsoft partnership with Windows Phone 7 predicted to surge to number 2 behind Android by 2015.
Written by Matthew Miller, Contributing Writer

Back in February Nokia and Microsoft announced that Nokia would be putting Windows Phone 7 on its future smartphones and I was quite happy because I am a fan of both, but many were not pleased with the news. According to this new IDC forecast for the smartphone market, Windows Phone 7 is predicted to be the number 2 mobile OS in the world behind Android by 2015.

I previously questioned the value of 3-year forecasts in the fast moving smartphone world and still think it is tough to predict what is going to happen. Microsoft and Nokia could break up if things don't work out, Apple may come up with some major change in iOS that gains them some market share, or HP's webOS could even break the 5% market share level.

2011 Market Share 2015 Market Share 2011-2015 CAGR
Android 39.5% 45.4% 23.8%
BlackBerry 14.9% 13.7% 17.1%
iOS 15.7% 15.3% 18.8%
Symbian 20.9% 0.2% -65.0%
Windows Phone 7/Windows Mobile 5.5% 20.9% 67.1%
Others 3.5% 4.6% 28.0%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 19.6%
-Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, March 29, 2011

As recent market share data has shown, Apple's iOS has plateaued. I think this is likely due to limited carrier availability and a stagnant OS interface, when compared to the fresh user interfaces coming from Android and Windows Phone 7. RIM is also predicted to continue at a fairly steady pace for the next few years, but if the enterprise market decides to go with Windows Phone 7 they may just see more of a decline than predicted. Symbian of course will see a major drop in market share, although there will continue to be low end Symbian devices in the market.

What do you think of this IDC forecast?

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