IDC is projecting that there will be nearly 1 billion smartphone unit shipped in 2015 and has begun the long tweaking process for its platform standings.
The research firm's quarterly smartphone prognostications include the following:
However, the most debatable IDC projections revolve around the 2015 view. As noted previously, IDC is projecting the Nokia transition to Windows Phone 7 to go smoothly and that Microsoft will have 20 percent of the mobile platform market.
I argued that IDC's figures for 2015 were bunk and questioned Gartner's take too. Recent events---profit warnings at both Nokia and RIM---make projecting out to 2015 a fool's errand.
Fortunately, IDC is backing off a bit on its Windows Phone 7 optimism. A quarter ago, IDC's Windows Phone 7 2015 market share projection was 20.9 percent. As of Thursday, IDC is at 20.3 percent.
Anyone want to bet that IDC's 2015 projection will be a smidge below 20 percent next quarter? The wild card will be Nokia's market share going into 2012. Today Nokia looks like it is unraveling.
IDC's rationale looks like this:
Until Nokia begins introducing Windows Phone-powered smartphones in large volumes in 2012, Windows Phone 7/Windows Mobile will only capture a small share of the market as the release of Mango-powered smartphones are not expected to reach the market until late 2011. Nevertheless, assuming that Nokia's transition to Windows Phone goes smoothly, the OS is expected to defend a number 2 rank and more than 20% share in 2015.
That assumption today looks crazier than it did just three months ago.