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Pitch of the day: Analytics PR spiel annoys Phillies fan

This just in: Information Builders has predicted the World Series winner and the Los Angeles Dodgers will defeat the Anaheim Angels.But before pitching someone the PR teams should at least check a locale or two.
Written by Larry Dignan, Contributor on

This just in: Information Builders has predicted the World Series winner and the Los Angeles Dodgers will defeat the Anaheim Angels.

But before pitching someone the PR teams should at least check a locale or two. I'm a tweener between New York and Philly. Do you honestly think I'm going to be hip to a Dodgers World Series win? And can I really take a predictive modeling exercise seriously that left out my Phillies? First the Phillies play at 2 p.m. ET for the first two games, then games end at 2 a.m. ET in 20 degrees when the team goes to Colorado. Then Information Builders rolls with a model that excludes the world champions (the prediction was out before the Phillies clinched). What kind of model predicts the future and excludes 25 percent of the field? It's a diss-a-thon.

Here's the pitch and my hit back:

From: Lawrence Dignan Sent: Tuesday, October 13, 2009 9:42 AM To: Redacted Subject: RE: Experts release results from predictive model: LA Dodgers will win the World Series

Well since I’m a Phillies fan I’m going to ignore this pitch.

From: Redacted Sent: Tuesday, October 13, 2009 9:24 AM To: Lawrence Dignan Subject: Experts release results from predictive model: LA Dodgers will win the World Series

Larry,

Experts at business intelligence software company, Information Builders, have used their own software to predict the 2009 World Series Champion.

To come up with their prediction, the company analyzed 40 years of baseball statistics from all of the teams that made the playoffs such as winning percentage, runs scored, batting average, total extra base hits, earned run average and fielding percentage. As a result, Information Builders was able to predict The Los Angeles Dodgers will defeat the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in the 2009 Fall Classic.

Its software product, RStat, determined which combination of statistics for each year that was most significant in determining a winner. The company then created the scoring routine and applied it to the same statistics for the eight teams that made the playoffs this year. The final predictive model that was used showed that the Dodgers, Angels and Yankees had the highest probability of winning. Although the probabilities were close, the Dodgers did have a slight edge over the Angels and Yankees. These three were nearly twice as likely to win than the remaining five teams.

Here is a link to the press release announcing the results and prediction: http://www.sys-con.com/node/1141052

I’m happy to set you up with the brains behind the predictive model, just let me know. Thanks for your time and consideration.

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