Wall Street analysts are saying that it's unlikely that Apple would recall the iPhone 4 over its antenna issues, which were called a hardware flaw by Consumer Reports this week. But would those analysts put down their hard-earned money to back their insight?
At least one online betting side, Paddy Power, an Ireland-based bookmaker, said today that odds are on for a recall - slashing those odds from 2/1 to 4/6, meaning that the likelihood of a recall has shifted from No to Yes. As of now, a $4 bet will win $6 if there's a recall. The odds for no recall are 11/10.
At least those were the odds earlier today. As gamblers know, odds constantly change.
In an email, the company said the Consumer Reports non-recommendation sparked "a betting frenzy over the past 24 hours," with gamblers backing a potential recall. The company said:
It looks like Apple may have been a little too fast out of the traps with the iPhone 4 launch. If current betting trends are to be believed it now seems certain that a recall is on the cards.
Of course, the odds are just that. And, by definition, gambling on something that someone else might or might not do is riskier than betting on the outcome of a game. Only Steve Jobs and company knows for sure whether a recall is in the future - but they're not saying anything yet.