'

Site lays odds for iPhone recalls, screen breaks, tramples, spontaneous combustion

The website LiveScience.com notes that gaming and probability oddsmaker site BetUs.

iphone06-25.jpg
The website LiveScience.com notes that gaming and probability oddsmaker site BetUs.com is, well, betting that some funky stuff could go down as iPhone debuts this Friday and users take it home.

"This phone has everything but the kitchen sink,” LiveScience quotes BetUS.com spokesman Reed Richards. "With the seemingly endless options that the phone offers, the chances for a malfunction are likely."

Of course I know that some of the scenarios described are silly. At least a few are firmly in the "grain of salt" camp. So please understand I am presenting them to illustrate the degree to which folks who get paid to think about the probability of stuff have been devoting grey matter cogitations to this iPhone debut.

OK, so what is the liklihood of various iPhone malfunctions or ominous event(s)? BetUS.com offers the following odds:

  • Consumers are reported camping out waiting for an iPhone—3/1
  • Initial iPhones get recalled—30/1
  • iPhone sells at least 12 Million units in 2008—5/6
  • Apple’s stock jumps at least 10% in value in regards to the price on 6/30/07—1/2
  • Consumers pay at least three times the original price ($1,500) on ebay—2/1
  • The screen breaks/cracks like Apple’s first-generation nano (iPod)—150/1
  • There are mass reports of the battery life being less than the promised 8 hours—10/1
  • Someone is trampled while trying to get an iPhone—20/1
  • iPhone spontaneously combusts—150/1

In my opinion the "reported camping out" is the most likely of these scenarios - followed by $1,500 or more on eBay and complaints about shorter battery life than promised.

Which of the above do you think is the most likely?