Skipping Vista

Despite the fact that Windows 7 is almost cooked, a leaked Microsoft memo suggests that XP may live on past its May 30, 2009 retirement date.

The leaked internal memo outlines how Microsoft will grant HP the right to continue to downgrading Vista systems to XP.  The memo does however goes on too suggest that HP should be clear with customers about support:

It's important to remind customers that Microsoft are still planning to retire XP Pro Mainstream support on April 14, 2009 and will only provide OS security updates beyond that date unless the customer has an Extended Hotfix Support contract. MS Extended Support for XP Pro ends on April 8th, 2014.

Unconfirmed rumors go further and suggest that Microsoft will allow HP to ship XP until April 30, 2010. If this XP extension has being granted to HP, it will almost certainly be extended to other OEMs too.

It is worth bearing in mind that the EULA for both Vista Business and Ultimate allow users to downgrade, so this will remain in effect for the entire lifetime of the OS.

With Windows XP still commanding a 63% market share, netbook popularity continuing to rise, and Windows 7 still several months away, Microsoft needs an OS to cater for those who won't touch Vista with a 20 foot pole. Rather than give those folks an excuse to look at Linux, it's in Microsoft's interests to continue to make XP seem relevant. That said, since downgrade rights exist for Business and Ultimate, as well as volume licensing customers, I think that all this leaked memo is about is making sure that OEMs remind customers of the support implications of choosing to downgrade from Vista, so they know what they are getting into upfront.

I've spoken to a lot of people who have made the conscious decision to skip Vista. Some base these decisions on good judgment, others on more shaky judgments. It doesn't really matter what the reason is. However, as I've pointed out many times before, anyone who is still using XP needs to have an escape route planned. The problem isn't so much related to XP itself, but that vendors, in particular security vendors, are going to start dropping XP support in products as soon as they are having to support both Vista and 7.

My guess is that most of of those who are currently anti-Vista will move to Windows 7. While many have told me that they will be looking to Mac of Linux, I really don't see this being realistically taken up by many.