Tablets are going to be replaced at a rate more similar to an MP3 player or phone than a PC, according to a forecast by Forrester Research.
In conjunction with the start of the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, Forrester updated its tablet forecast. In a nutshell, Forrester projects that tablet sales will more than double in 2011 and reach a third of online consumers by 2015.
Although (tablets) are certainly used for productivity, tablets are proving themselves to be "lifestyle devices" at home and at work, and as such we think consumers will upgrade to newer models more rapidly than they would a more utilitarian device like a PC. In other words, we think a significant number of first-generation iPad buyers will buy iPad 2 when it comes out this year -- many first-gen iPads will end up entertaining the kids in the back of the car while Mom and Dad get the shiny new (likely Facetime-compatible) model.
Here's the money chart:
In addition, the e-reader market is also expected to double in 2011.