Ten Future of Tech bets- and you can vote here on all of them!
Even more intriguingly, these bets were articulated by two-person teams of generally well-known technologists. People such as Lotus founder Mitch Kapor, RSS trailblazer and blogger Dave Winer, Internet pioneer musician Brian Eno, Eric Schmidt of Google, Craig Mundie of Microsoft, and others you would know.
Just hopped by the site and did some reading of some "Open Bets." Let's pick a few. I'll list each, provide my opinion, and then ask for yours.
Placed in 2002: By 2029 no computer - or "machine intelligence" - will have passed the Turing Test (whether or not a computer will be able to successfully impersonate a human. My answer-NO.
[poll id=109]
Placed in 2002: In a Google search of five keywords or phrases representing the top five news stories of 2007, weblogs will rank higher than the New York Times' Web site. OK, that one's easy. I just checked "Iraq War"- and NYTimes citation ranked higher on Google than any blog did.
[poll id=110]
Placed in 2002: A profitable video-on-demand service aimed at consumers will offer 10,000 titles to 5 million subscribers by 2010. YES, FOR SURE. WE ARE ALREADY ON THE WAY THERE.
[poll id=111]
Placed in 2002: By 2010, more than 50 percent of books sold worldwide will be printed on demand at the point of sale in the form of library-quality paperbacks. EVENTUALLY, BUT NOT IN THREE YEARS.
[poll id=112]
Now let's go to some newer bets, some of which were first offered this year:
By 2007, the U.S. Government will intervene to prevent at least one of the Incumbent Local Exchange Carriers (ILECs)/Regional Bell Operating Companines (RBOCs) (e.g. Verizon, SBC, Bell South, and EXCEPTING Qwest) from filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. THEY ARE ALL PROFITABLE, SO I CAN'T SEE THIS HAPPENING.
[poll id=113]
In 2012, 75 percent of all revenue for enterprise software companies will be from subscription fees rather than license fees. I THINK THE TIME HORIZON IS A LITTLE SHORT, AND THE PERCENT IS A LITTLE HIGH.
[poll id=114]
Placed in 2002: That by 2020 a wearable device will be available that will use voice recognition capability and high-volume storage to monitor and index conversations you have or conversations which occur in your vicinity for later searching as supplemental memory. PRIVACY CONCERNS ASIDE, I COULD USE ONE. I SAY THIS HAPPENS WELL BEFORE 2020.
[poll id=115]
Placed in 2002: By the end of 2012, more than 50% of the root servers on the Internet will be located outside the United States. IT'S NOT GOING TO TAKE THAT LONG.
[poll id=116]
By the year 2020 the technology will exist that will allow for the "faxing" (teleportation- sending/receiving) of actual inanimate objects, such as text books, clothing, jewelry and the like. THE COMPLEXITY IS IN THE REASSEMBLY OF THE ATOMS AT THE OTHER END. YOU ARE LOOKING AT MILLIONS OF THEM. GET ONE WRONG, AND YOU HAVE AN ANGRY CUSTOMER. SO STAR TREK TRANSPORTERS ASIDE, NO, THIS WON'T HAPPEN IN FORSEEABLE FUTURE.
[poll id=117]
And finally:
Placed in 2006: By 2010, the use of dial-up modems will represent less than 5 percent of all Internet access (represented as a percentage of all households) in the United States. As part of this prediction, I expect that at that time, dial-up service will cost significantly more than the slowest alternative, which will be substantially faster than dial-up. MY GUESS: BY 2010 U.S. HOUSEHOLDS STIL ON DIAL-UP WILL PROBABLY BE IN LOW TO MID TEENS.
[poll id=118]
"In the year 2525..if man is still alive..."
I'd settle for 2125.