Global technology spending will largely depend on the United States amid mixed economic signals in Europe, Asia and Latin America, according to Forrester Research.
Forrester is now projecting that 2013 global technology spending growth will be 2.3 percent to $2.07 trillion and 5.4 percent in 2014. CIOs in the U.S. should plan for 5 percent to 6 percent growth in 2013 and 2014 with modest rises in other markets. China, Latin America, Africa and Middle East will show growth in the high single digits, said Forrester analyst Andrew Bartels.
The research firm has cut its 2013 IT spending projection twice from 4.3 percent to 3.3 percent to the current tally.
By region, Forrester's 2013 regional IT spending growth breaks down like this in U.S. dollars:
- U.S. spending will be up 5.9 percent in 2013 and 6.9 percent in 2014.
- Canada will see flat IT spending in 2013 and growth of 3.2 percent in 2014.
- Latin America will see spending growth of 2.6 percent in 2013 and 10.7 percent in 2014.
- Western and Central Europe will have growth of 1.3 percent in 2013 and 3.4 percent in 2014.
- Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa will show 2013 growth of 6.9 percent and 6.3 percent in 2014.
- Asia Pacific will show a decline of 3.2 percent in 2013 and growth of 3.7 percent in 2014.
As for categories of technology, software spending, cloud and analytics will show rises. Spending on computer equipment will fall. Not surprisingly, server and PC operating systems will show negative spending growth of 9 percent and 2 percent, respectively.
In a report, Bartels noted:
Software and (to a lesser degree) IT consulting and systems integration services will be the primary
growth sectors for the tech industry in 2013 and 2014. Business and government purchases of software will grow by 3.3% in 2013 and 6.2% in 2014. While the 2013 growth rate may not seem impressive, it will be stronger than any other tech category. Software is where most of the big changes in technology are taking place — whether those changes are cloud computing adoption in the form of software-as-a-service (SaaS) and platform-as-a-service (PaaS); smart computing in the form of big data, real-time predictive analytics, and smart process apps; or mobile computing in the form of mobile apps and enterprise app stores.
Computer equipment spending growth will be saved largely by tablets as PCs and other equipment will wane.