At the moment, almost all of what I have are comments from people close to the matter who are unable to go on the record. That said, here's my current understanding of what's going on with OpenOffice.
First, after Oracle booted out the LibreOffice fork developers from OpenOffice, Oracle still didn't want to invest anymore in OpenOffice. As Edward Screven, Oracle's Chief Corporate Architect, said in April, "Given the breadth of interest in free personal productivity applications and the rapid evolution of personal computing technologies, we believe the OpenOffice.org project would be best managed by an organization focused on serving that broad constituency on a non-commercial basis. We intend to begin working immediately with community members to further the continued success of Open Office. Oracle will continue to strongly support the adoption of open standards-based document formats, such as the Open Document Format (ODF)."
"People like the ODF simply because of its enormously successful flexibility," Suárez-Potts told Proffitt. OpenOffice, LibreOffice, IBM's Symphony and Google Docs all use ODF. But, with Oracle taking a hands off approach to OpenOffice and ODF, what does that mean for the format?
Suárez-Potts saw four possible futures for OpenOffice. Neglect, which is where we're at now, was the worst choice by far. The others were to spin OpenOffice to a new foundation with broad industry support; join it with an already existing open-source foundation with broad corporate support such as the Apache Software Foundation or The Eclipse Foundation; or to join up with the Document Foundation's LibreOffice fork.
It now seems that IBM, which has invested millions in OpenOffice over the years, and uses it as the basis for its Symphony office suite, preferred the option of OpenOffice being spun off to The Apache Foundation. Oracle, which I'm told has contractual obligations to IBM to see that OpenOffice continued to be developed, was fine with this. Unfortunately for IBM and Oracle, my sources tell me that Apache was not so enamored of the idea and has turned it down.
The Document Foundation thinks Oracle should donate OpenOffice's code and intellectual property (IP) to them. Italo Vignoli, a member of the Document Foundation's steering committee, told me, that if Oracle does spin these materials off to another body, "Oracle is missing the opportunity to re-unite the OOo community governance. The Document Foundation remains open to every company and individual that wishes to participate in co-development. There has never been a better time to get involved and advance the state of the art in free-software office suites."
But what will really happen? I don't know.
I do know, based on all the bits and pieces I've been hearing that Oracle, at least, doesn't want to give the OpenOffice to LibreOffice. IBM feels more neutral about it. In the end, I see OpenOffice going to another organization. My best guess at this point is that it will be The Eclipse Foundation. One way or the other, it appears that OpenOffice will continue on.
UPDATE: Sources tell me that Apache has decided to take on OpenOffice. I expect to see the official word come out this week. It may be as early as tomorrow. sjvn--3:42 PM Eastern, May 31, 2011.