With this week’s confirmation by Microsoft that it plans to release Windows 7 to manufacturing “in the second half of July,” it’s time to take another look at the entries in my Windows 7 release date prediction pool.
The rules were pretty clear: Enter the complete date – day, month, and year – when you believe Microsoft will officially announce the release to manufacturing of Windows 7. I opened the pool for entries on April 9, 2008, and the official window for predictions closed on September 15, 2008. As I wrote in a follow-up post, the crowd predicted September 30, 2009; that's impressively close to the actual on-sale date of October 22, 2009. Assuming Microsoft hits its stated RTM deadline, one of the following people gets to claim bragging rights:
I’ll take a bow for my initial analysis in the posts, which flagged July 29 as the RTM date and was based on a post I wrote at the beginning of 2008:
My prediction? I’m sticking with what I wrote back in January. Windows 7 will be released to manufacturing on July 29, 2009, exactly 1000 days after Vista’s November 2, 2006 RTM date.
As promised, I’ll send a signed copy of Windows 7 Inside Out to the commenter who nails the date (or gets closest without overshooting it).