U.S. arms sale to Taiwan may throw Google negotiations in China out the window
The U.S. Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) announcement of the sale of sophisticated weapons systems, primarily anti-ship Harpoon missiles, and electronics upgrades for Taiwan's F-16 fighters may have a crippling effect on Google's ability to negotiate a deal to continue operating its services in China under new terms. In fact it may scrap any possibility of real change, and may make things worse.
The U.S. State Department timing of its announcements has angered China and has announced several retaliatory actions. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs continues to suggest that it was not responsible for the penetration of Google's network. It has yet to release an official statement on its website. The BBC has reported that Beijing's anger is likely to ratchet up the tensions with the U.S.
The high tech world (Google, Microsoft, Yahoo, Motorola, Nokia, etc.) is now going through what other U.S. companies have for decades - as pawns of diplomacy between foreign policy agendas. Industrial giants like Boeing, Ford and GM have gone through this process and every time, take deep breaths as the issues unfold. The U.S. lobbyist rarely has influence when it comes to a showdown with China. Many have tried, but none have truly succeeded. But it is not just about protecting U.S. interests in China that are at stake. It's the global affect that U.S. Foreign policy will have on other nations and their policy agendas. The only country in the world that has an Act of Congress protecting it is Taiwan (Taipei).
Will a swap of interest occur? Perhaps scrap the Arms deal in exchange for a more open Chinese government that allows enhanced Internet Freedom? Not by itself it wouldn't be. Recent events indicate another possibility. China has always negotiated from a position of strength. It has resisted U.S. policies at Copenhagen, North Korean sanctions, currency policies, trade tariffs, WTO enforcement, copyright protection and the Internet, and it may signal a possible package deal is on the table, if the U.S. puts Taiwan on the table. Would the U.S. ever agree to such a deal is the ultimate question. Taiwan is a hub of technology, mass production and political stability in the region and would be stunned if the U.S. stopped supporting it and be seen as an abandonment of a nation that is democratic.
But there may be a way out if Macau and Hong Kong is any indicator of how both the Portuguese and British governments negotiated their exits from the region, both of which are thriving, albeit under the watchful eye of a suspicious Chinese government. Eric Schmidt like everyone else will have to watch patiently as events unfold and there's not a single pressure or lobbying effort it can implement. This is China's first move in its foreign policy doctrine gambit and how it will have to deal with this U.S. Administration. The next play on the chess board by the U.S is being monitored closely by all, especially inside Google. Chances are, the status quo will not remain the way it is resulting in a Chinese opening gambit that is declined.
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China, why it is doing this and is it worth the risks.