That's the theory being tossed around by online advertising executives. The theory goes like this: Cash strapped dot-coms will turn away from expensive TV ads to focus on more effective online advertising. Instead of blowing millions on hit-or-miss Super Bowl ads, dot-coms will spend more online with direct marketing companies like 24/7 Media, DoubleClick, CMGI's ad properties and Engage Technologies.
24/7 Media CEO David Moore pushed that rosy outlook Tuesday at the PaineWebber Growth and Technology Conference in New York. Moore may have a point. Analysts said struggling dot-coms were becoming more selective with their marketing dollars and forgoing traditional TV ads for online advertising.
"When 38 dot-coms advertised in the Super Bowl it was alarming," said Moore, who noted that at best a SuperBowl ad would be wasted because only 50 percent of the US is on the Net. "Online advertising is more effective. More money is going to online advertising."
You'll be hearing that pitch a lot, especially since DoubleClick execs will present at the PaineWebber conference on Thursday.
There's a good reason Internet ad execs downplaying the dot-com cash problems -- concerns about a slowdown in ad spending are rampant. Moore noted that sales did slow in as dot-coms unravelled and the stock market slumped. "We saw a slowdown in dot-com spending in April and early May, but it has come back strong and hard," said Moore. He noted that advertising picked up in late May and the first week of June.
Whether Moore can be optimistic based on a late May and first week of June ad pickup remains to be seen, but it does set up an interesting debate.
Wit SoundView analyst Jordan Rohan in a May 30 report sounded some alarm bells about online media and ad services companies. His checks confirmed a slowdown in April and May. Rohan noted that DoubleClick sell-through percentages rebounded from April to May, but the ad rate, or cost per thousand (CPM), fell from $6 to $4.70 (£3.93 to £3.08). Rohan cut his ratings and revenue estimates for DoubleClick, 24/7 and ValueClick.
"We cannot be sure that the softness will not persist," he wrote. "We also cannot anticipate the reaction of non-dot-com ad buyers who may relax their online advertising efforts as they can now maintain a similar share of voice with fewer impressions."
Rohan's last point is key. Offline and online players had to spend more last year to be heard over ad happy dot-com startups. Now some of those startups are broke, the remaining online advertisers can get the same bang for less buck.
Rohan reckons that media giants such as America Online and Yahoo! would weather a slowdown because those portal giants have longer ad contracts. Yahoo's average length of contract is 238 days compared to DoubleClick's 90 days. Rohan also said fast growing portals such as About.com could outgrow a slowdown.
For his part, Moore isn't worried. He touted 24/7's scale and new technology offerings and even pushed up his break-even target. The company had projected break even in the first half of 2002, but is "looking for ways to pull that into 2001." Among other items on the investment conference circuit:
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