A new report by GSMA Intelligence has shed light on the fast changing nature of mobile markets in the Arab world, as well as reiterating some of the regional variances that we have that we've previously seen characterising the region.
Particularly interesting is the forecast that smartphone penetration across North Africa and the Gulf will be "almost equal by 2020", a striking conclusion given the current disparity between these two sub-regions. Qatar and UAE enjoy the highest levels of smartphone adoption in the world at 80 percent while none of the North African countries in the study have takeup levels anywhere near the global average of 29 percent.
In fact, outside the Gulf, the only MENA country with smartphone penetration above 20 percent is Lebanon, where 34 percent of total connections are smartphones. Takeup in other MENA nations ranges from 10 percent in South Sudan to 18 percent in Jordan.
Nonetheless, some markets are starting to see a more rapid adoption of smartphones. Morocco's Maroc Telecom, for example, added 1.2 million 3G connections during the second quarter of 2014, up 46 percent from the previous quarter; it's a development that supports the idea that the smartphone gap will be minimal by the end of the decade.
Smartphone ownership aside, here are ten other findings from the report which caught our eye.
It is not surprising given the projected trajectory of smartphone penetration in North Africa that the study also suggests that MENA will also see a rapid growth in mobile data usage in the coming years. With an anticipated CAGR of 70 percent between 2013 and 2018, the report suggests that MENA will become the fast growing market in the world for data traffic growth.
However, it is also worth noting that much of this growth will come from 3G connections. In contrast, 4G connections, will "only account for nine percent of regional connections… well behind the global average of 27 percent." It's probable therefore that by the time much of North Africa has adopted 3G, 4G will have become the default for many mobile users in the Gulf. In that scenario, the digital divides currently present in the region will simply have evolved; rather than disappeared.
To help reduce this risk, as well as ensure the continued growth of mobile markets in the region, the paper also examines different ways in which takeup gaps could be reduced. "Curbing counterproductive taxation"; launching new services and price plans; innovative products like Mozilla's $25 smartphone; and voluntary network sharing were all identified as potential remedies.
Whether these prospective solutions will be realised remains to be seen, but either way, the dynamism of MENA's mobile markets looks set to continue for some time to come.