Holiday prediction - The Kindle Fire will be a huge hit

This year it's not going to be games consoles or iPods or PCs that are going to be the big holiday gift ... it's going to be Amazon's Kindle Fire.
Written by Adrian Kingsley-Hughes, Contributing Writer

The holidays are coming ... oh yes ... but don't panic, you've a fair few shopping days left. But it's still close enough to start thinking about what's going to be hot and what's not this year.

My first prediction - Amazon's Kindle Fire will be a huge hit. Massive.

What am I basing this prediction on? Well, for starters, as has been reported elsewhere, the Kindle Fire is already the most wished for, most gifted and the best seller in the electronics category ... and it's not even out yet!

Note: It's worth noting that Kindles absolutely dominate Amazon's best seller, most gifted and most wished for top twenty lists under electronics, but are nowhere to be seen in in the two twenty top rated electronic items.

See, I told you no one would care that it was a revamped RIM PlayBook.

So there's already massive demand. What's the second reason? Price.

That $199 price tag is sweet. That's the same price as a 4GB Xbox 360 on Amazon, $50 cheaper than the 160GB PS3, cheaper than any other tablet (unless they're junk), and a whole lot cheaper than any PC or Mac. Under $250 would have been sweet, but being under $200 adds a cherry on top.

Finally ... and this is important ... no one has a Kindle Fire yet. Unlike the iPod (where everyone who wants one already has three), all and the games consoles and computers and tablets, the Kindle Fire is new and exciting. That freshness will be a huge selling point (just like it will be for the iPhone 4S)

Amazon's not going to be making stacks of cash from each Kindle Fire sold, but that doesn't matter since the device acts are a direct two-way pipeline - bringing Amazon to the users, and sending their cash direct to Amazon.

One caveat to my 'Kindle Fire will be a huge hit' thing - that Amazon has the supply chain figured out and can keep up with demand. If the Kindle Fire goes out of stock within seconds of release not to be seen again until after the holidays, then I guess Amazon's blown it.

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