Amazon is estimated to have 63 million Prime subscribers in the second quarter with 44% of them planning to make a purchase during Prime Day, according to a Cowen & Co. survey.
Cowen has been tracking Prime subscribers, which are critical to Amazon's e-commerce recurring revenue and lifetime value of a customer, since 2016 via a proprietary survey.
In its latest racking survey of 2,500 consumers, Cowen found that 56% of respondents said they live in a Prime household. That rate would indicate a Prime subscriber base of 63 million, up 8% from a year ago. This stat is notable given that Amazon is likely to see a boost in Prime subscribers when its 48 hour Prime Day sale starts July 15.
If anything, the most important stat about Prime Day will be new subscribers to Prime. Prime households represent about 71% of total Amazon purchasers in the second quarter, according to Cowen. Prime subscribers also purchase more frequently and across more industries and categories.
In a research note, Cowen analyst John Blackledge wrote:
Prime Day returns for the 5th time on 7/15, running for 48 hrs vs. 36 hrs in '18. Prime Day '18 marked AMZN's largest global shopping event to date (since surpassed by Black Friday '18). The event is a big driver of GMV, revenue & Prime sub growth. Amazon had 63MM US Prime HHs in 2Q19 per our survey data, with further upside as ~10% of non Prime US households plan to sign up to participate in Prime Day.
Blackledge noted that Prime Day may deliver more sales since Amazon said it will offer sales on more top brands as well as its house brands. Another perk of Prime Day is that Amazon can get more Echos in the field. Those devices play into Amazon's platform and smart home strategies.
And while 44% of Prime subscribers plan on purchasing during Prime Day another 42% were undecided. Amazon's goal will be to encourage impulse buys with deals.