New research from Adobe suggests online sales will hit $143.7 billion during the 2019 holiday season, an increase of 14% above last year's totals.
According to Adobe Digital Insights, which relies on Adobe Analytics data, Cyber Monday is projected to become the biggest online shopping day of the season, with $9.4 billion in sales. This will be the fourth straight year that Cyber Monday comes out on top of Black Friday, which is expected to generate sales of around $7.5 billion.
Adobe projects that Thanksgiving Day itself will bring in retail sales of $4.4 billion. Cyber weekend, which runs from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, could see sales break $29 billion.
When it comes to mobile, Adobe projects that roughly 36% of online sales will come from smartphones and account for 57% of online store visits. In all, Americans will spend $14 billion more this year on their phones compared with 2018.
"We predict that the major online shopping days—Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday—will see unprecedented growth," said Jason Woosley, VP of commerce, product, and platform at Adobe. "Our advice for retailers is to focus on the major online shopping days in the holiday period by offering shoppers personalized, seamless, and unforgettable online deals and experiences."
Adobe also expects that buy online, pickup in-store (BOPIS) services will become more popular with consumers, especially in the week leading up to Christmas. Adobe said 37% of consumers surveyed said they plan to use a BOPIS service this season and 82% said they were likely to make additional purchases while in store picking up an order. Adobe data also suggests that consumers are 19% more likely to use a BOPIS service during the week of Christmas.
As for the sales divide between small businesses and retail giants, Adobe said the biggest e-commerce players will see the most revenue gains. Retailers like Amazon are likely to see revenue increase 65% during the November and December holiday while smaller retailers will only see about a 35% boost in online revenue.
"For smaller and midsize businesses, the issue is really about budget," Woosley said. "With the money they have to devote to paid media, their best strategy is to focus on their messaging."